New Supermajority Poll Reveals Sporadically Voting Young Women Could Represent Secret Surge in 2024 Election

WASHINGTON, D.C. — Supermajority, a leading women’s equality organization, alongside HIT Strategies and Lake Research Partners, today released pivotal findings from a recent survey shedding light on the positive vibe shift of young women aged 18-35 who are sporadic and non-voters as well as highlighting how they’re feeling about presidential candidates and what will motivate them to vote just weeks before the 2024 election.

Defined as those who have voted in 50% or less of the last six federal elections they were eligible for, these young women have experienced a significant shift, from cynical to hopeful. However, these young women still need information and persuasion to turn them out to vote. The survey underscores the critical role of civic engagement among this demographic, historically pivotal in election outcomes since 2016.

Key Findings:

• Support for Harris: A majority of sporadically voting young women (51%) are planning to vote for Harris, both because they see positive qualities in her, and to act against Trump. Initially, Harris leads over Trump by 15 points—a margin which grows to 24 points net Harris after messaging and information on her accomplishments and policy platform. Support for Harris is higher among Black and AAPI sporadically voting young women, among which this gap is drastically wider.
• Positive Outlook: Sporadically voting young women feel much more positively towards the future, the government, and believe more strongly that their vote holds power since a May survey concerning non-candidate matters separately conducted by Supermajority Ed Fund; this increase is driven by women of color.
• Top Issues: For sporadically voting young women, it is a requirement or very important that a candidate fights against racism and discrimination (78%), prioritizes bringing down prices to make cost of living more affordable (85%), fights for working families (87%), and prioritizes protecting abortion access (66%). When it comes to cost of living, it is a requirement or very important that a candidate makes housing (82%) and healthcare (80%) more affordable.
• Mobilizing Messages: The current survey finds that when talking about Harris, sporadically voting young women are much more moved by a progressive message that aligns with their values and policy priorities, compared to a moderate message which underperforms the progressive message by 18-points. By the end of the survey, after receiving these messages and information on Project 2025 and the Supreme Court, key audiences shifted to voting for Harris in the final horse race polling. Additionally, a quarter (24%) of sporadically voting young women shifted up in sense of vote power, which will be important not only to turn these young women out to vote in November, but also to keep them engaged in the future.

These findings underscore a clear call to action for policymakers and candidates to prioritize issues that resonate deeply with young women voters. In previous research, much of sporadically voting young women’s disillusion with government was attributed to not feeling represented by their candidate options and too many old white men being in power, to which they saw having more diverse leadership as a solution. Now, with a change from Biden to Harris at the top of the ticket, these young women are feeling more power in their ability to make change through voting. However, while identity is important, it isn’t everything—young women need to see how Harris and elected officials will represent them in the decisions they make on behalf of the communities they belong to. As the 2024 election quickly approaches, understanding and responding to these concerns will be critical in mobilizing this demographic towards active political participation.

You can read the full research findings here and detailed visual representations of the data here. For a comprehensive breakdown of survey results, contact press@supermajority.com.